There are eight relevant monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled this week that may influence mortgage pricing, in addition to two Treasury auctions and an FOMC meeting. A couple of the reports are considered to be highly important while others are of moderate or low importance. We have something worth watching scheduled every day of the week except tomorrow, creating the possibility that we could see plenty of movement in rates this week.
January's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the first economic report of the week, coming at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This report is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond market and therefore, can move mortgage rates if it shows any big surprises. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because waning confidence in their own financial situations is a sign that consumers are less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. Analysts are expecting to see a decline from December's reading, indicating consumer confidence was weaker this month than last month. A reading much smaller than the expected 88.5 would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage rates. A higher reading would mean that consumers are more likely to spend in the immediate future, fueling economic growth and possibly pushing mortgage pricing higher Tuesday.